← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS win | 51% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 22% | 22% | 4.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Moreirense FC −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 64% | 1.71 | value: +9% |
| Over | 44% | 36% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Michel Augusto · Moreirense FC |
| 8' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · AVS |
| 17' | ⚽ | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Cedric Teguia · Moreirense FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · AVS |
| 50' | ⚽ | Joel Jorquera · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Zé Luís · AVS |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · AVS |
| 54' | 🟥 | Kiki Afonso · AVS |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 10 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
| Tiago Galletto · AVS |
| 82' | 🟨 | Babatunde Akinsola · AVS |
| 88' | 🟨 | Leonardo Buta · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vasco Lopes · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 16.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1450.02 | 1532.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.91 | -31.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 28.51 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.67 |