← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 71% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.68 | fair |
| Boavista win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Osman Kakay · Boavista |
| 9' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 25' | ⚽ | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟥 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Osman Kakay · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sidoine Fogning · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟥 |
| Osman Kakay · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 40.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1421.49 | 1784.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.48 | -28.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 24.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.01 | 9.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 30.24 | 27.14 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.98 |