← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 36% | 38% | 2.71 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 35% | 34% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Michel Augusto · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pedro Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1533.96 | 1547.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.77 | 12.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 8.91 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.33 | 25.58 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.24 |