← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: José Bessa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 50% | 45% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| FC Famalicão win | 21% | 25% | 4.67 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Wendel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 26' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟥 | Václav Sejk · FC Famalicão |
| 58' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matheus Araújo · CD Santa Clara |
| 81' | ⚽ | Wendel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' | 🟥 | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 89' | 🟨 | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 679.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1551.90 | 1611.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.95 | 6.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 24.62 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.30 |