← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Pires Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 48% | 50% | 2.02 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 27% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| CD Nacional −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 48% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 52% | 2.45 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Demir Ege Tıknaz · Rio Ave FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Demir Ege Tıknaz · Rio Ave FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Theofanis Bakoulas · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Demir Ege Tıknaz · Rio Ave FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | André Sousa · CD Nacional |
| 57' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Kostoulas · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
| 86' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ole Pohlmann · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Konstantinos Kostoulas · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 679.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1442.03 | 1542.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.70 | -4.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 24.10 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.38 |