← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, May 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 40% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Diogo Travassos · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 20' | 🟨 | Theofanis Bakoulas · Rio Ave FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 38' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alan Ruiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 77' | 🟨 | Issiar Drame · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | João Novais · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nilton Varela · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | ⚽ | Martim Neto · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 185.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1531.97 | 1476.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.15 | 16.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.74 | 26.48 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.21 |