← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Casa Pia AC win | 26% | 22% | 3.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 61% | 1.79 | value: +9% |
| Over | 46% | 39% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 43' | 🟥 | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cauê · Casa Pia AC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Andrian Kraev · Casa Pia AC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fahem Benaissa-Yahia · Casa Pia AC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Dias · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟥 |
| Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 215.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1549.19 | 1536.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.04 | -18.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.58 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.91 |