← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 38% | 29% | 2.53 | fair |
| Farense win | 33% | 40% | 2.97 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Farense +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 61% | 1.75 | value: +6% |
| Over | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Léo Realpe · FC Famalicão |
| 17' | 🟨 | Rony Lopes · Farense |
| 30' | ⚽ | Simon Elisor · FC Famalicão |
| 34' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Paulo Victor · Farense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Filipe Soares · Farense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão |
| 52' | 🟨 | Simon Elisor · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · Farense |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marco Moreno · Farense |
| 73' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| 🟨 |
| Tomás Ribeiro · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Bermejo Escribano · Farense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pedro Bondo · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Darío Poveda · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 244.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.13 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1431.20 | 1625.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.20 | 30.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 21.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 30.10 | 24.91 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.59 |