← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 76% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.55 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 10% | 8% | 10.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Porto −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 53% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 47% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Moreirense FC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Yan Maranhão · Moreirense FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 42' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 71' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 121.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1780.35 | 1538.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.60 | -13.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 62.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.99 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.77 |