← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Gonçalo Neves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 37% | 43% | 2.56 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 31% | 26% | 3.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 7' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 48' | 🟥 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | ⚽ | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 210.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1555.35 | 1532.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.90 | -4.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| league points | 41.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 10.21 | 10.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.29 |