← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 61% | 72% | 1.56 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | 3.99 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 15% | 11% | 6.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora +1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Porto +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 55' | 🟨 | Issiar Drame · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 59' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · FC Porto |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Alan Ruiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alan Ruiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Montóia · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 237.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1451.14 | 1805.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.60 | -0.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 26.56 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.11 |