← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 20% | 19% | 4.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 37% | 2.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Mamadou Loum · FC Arouca |
| 4' | ⚽ | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Soares · CD Santa Clara |
| 31' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 47' | 🟨 | Serginho · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | 🟨 | Chico Lamba · FC Arouca |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alex Pinto · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adriano Firmino · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | Güven Yalçın · FC Arouca |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Henrique Araújo · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 665.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1531.26 | 1562.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.21 | -2.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 25.07 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.55 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.58 |