← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 38% | 38% | 2.58 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Rui Encarnação · CD Nacional |
| 16' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jonathan Mutombo · Gil Vicente FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bamba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 658.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1462.32 | 1486.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.36 | -19.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 26.71 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.76 |