← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 38% | 31% | 2.54 | fair |
| AVS win | 32% | 36% | 3.06 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| AVS +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 66% | 1.61 | value: +7% |
| Over | 40% | 34% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Babatunde Akinsola · AVS |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · AVS |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Zé Luís · AVS |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gustavo Mendonca · AVS |
| 82' | 🟨 | Guillermo Ochoa · AVS |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rafael Rodrigues · AVS |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tiago Galletto · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Mercado · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AVS | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1451.28 | 1556.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.44 | -21.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 23.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -2.22 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 27.70 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |