← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 67% | 1.55 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 16% | 11% | 6.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Porto −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 55% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 37' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | ⚽ | Pedro Bondo · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 107.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1801.60 | 1626.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.69 | 36.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.81 |
| league points | 59.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 23.98 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.63 |