← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Pires Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 27% | 21% | 3.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.64 | value: +6% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | João Tomé · Rio Ave FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sidnei Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Demir Ege Tıknaz · Rio Ave FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yan Maranhão · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jonathan Panzo · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Karem Zoabi · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 26 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| ⚽ |
| João Graça · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 286.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1564.00 | 1523.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.81 | -29.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 23.61 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.47 |