← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 24% | 23% | 4.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +10% |
| Over | 49% | 42% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sorriso · FC Famalicão |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sorriso · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mirko Topić · FC Famalicão |
| 72' | ⚽ | Václav Sejk · FC Famalicão |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pedro Amaral · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1614.83 | 1552.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.97 | 8.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 40.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.85 |