← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Boavista win | 29% | 35% | 3.27 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| CD Nacional +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Ibrahima Camará · Boavista |
| 16' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · CD Nacional |
| 23' | 🟨 | Luís Esteves · CD Nacional |
| 53' | 🟨 | Daniel Penha · CD Nacional |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sidoine Fogning · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| coach days | 11.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1408.47 | 1451.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| league points | 18.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -1.09 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.71 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.07 |