← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gonçalo Neves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 36% | 29% | 2.69 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 34% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.18 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Over | 44% | 39% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão |
| 33' | 🟨 | Chico Lamba · FC Arouca |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · FC Famalicão |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Henrique Araújo · FC Arouca |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mirko Topić · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | 🟨 | Güven Yalçın · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · FC Arouca |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟨 |
| Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 186.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1559.49 | 1604.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.85 | 12.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 24.59 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.58 |