← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 61% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.21 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 15% | 15% | 6.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto +1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +7% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Kévin Boma · GD Estoril Praia |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Xeka · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pedro Amaral · GD Estoril Praia |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days | 272.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1539.42 | 1808.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.12 | -13.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 14.06 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.15 |