← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Catarina Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 51% | 47% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 21% | 25% | 4.68 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 55% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 45% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Tiago Morais · Rio Ave FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Duplexe Tchamba · Casa Pia AC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pablo · Casa Pia AC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ruben Kluivert · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cauê · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theofanis Bakoulas · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 179.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1555.66 | 1555.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.27 | -10.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 24.36 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.48 |