← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 55% | 51% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.62 | value: +14% |
| Boavista win | 17% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Boavista −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Boavista |
| 36' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 56' | 🟥 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kewin · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 72' | 🟨 | Layvin Kurzawa · Boavista |
| 77' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jeremy Antonisse · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 258.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1547.20 | 1403.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | -10.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 29.13 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.55 |