← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 73% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 6.16 | value: +16% |
| AVS win | 7% | 8% | 14.77 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AVS −1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ignacio Rodríguez · AVS |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ignacio Rodríguez · AVS |
| 46' | 🟥 | Ignacio Rodríguez · AVS |
| 50' | 🟨 | Vasco Lopes · AVS |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jorge Teixeira · AVS |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tomás Pérez · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Franco · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 73.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1805.95 | 1484.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.55 | 2.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 50.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.94 |