← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 3, 08:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 72% | 81% | 1.30 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.79 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 10% | 7% | 10.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 71% | 1.60 | value: +13% |
| Under | 40% | 29% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.