← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 36% | 2.82 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 34% | 31% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| CD Nacional +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Daniel Penha · CD Nacional |
| 34' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · FC Famalicão |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | ⚽ | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Otar Mamageishvili · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo García · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arvin Appiah · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Elisor · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 609.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1442.14 | 1602.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.71 | 34.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 5.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 24.43 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.05 |