← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 06:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 69% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 5.13 | fair |
| AVS win | 12% | 11% | 9.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| AVS +1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 46% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.