← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 48% | 63% | 1.99 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 23% | 15% | 4.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 52% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 48% | 2.55 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |