← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +8% |
| Over | 47% | 42% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 25' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 39' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Dudu · CD Nacional |
| 52' | ⚽ | Daniel Penha · CD Nacional |
| 81' | 🟨 | Isaac · CD Nacional |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gustavo García · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vinicius Zanocelo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 595.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1434.73 | 1526.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.98 | 60.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.06 | 6.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.51 |