← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 49% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 22% | 22% | 4.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Casa Pia AC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 29' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 37' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 78' | 🟨 | João Goulart · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henrique Pereira · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Issiar Drame · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1573.37 | 1449.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.29 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 8.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.38 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.89 |