← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Luís Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 39% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 30% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Farense −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Fuki Yamada · CD Nacional |
| 26' | 🟨 | Rony Lopes · Farense |
| 41' | 🟥 | Elves Baldé · Farense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
| 48' | ⚽ | José Gomes · CD Nacional |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fuki Yamada · CD Nacional |
| 51' | 🟥 | Fuki Yamada · CD Nacional |
| 57' | ⚽ | José Gomes · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| coach days | 161.00 | 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1466.90 | 1415.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.94 | 29.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.85 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.86 |