← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 40% | 30% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 41% | 3.32 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | André Sousa · CD Nacional |
| 5' | ⚽ | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Henrique Araújo · FC Arouca |
| 37' | 🟨 | Daniel Penha · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 61' | 🟥 | Boris Popović · FC Arouca |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luís Esteves · CD Nacional |
| 87' | 🟨 | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 🟨 |
| Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 581.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1423.34 | 1543.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.61 | 14.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.87 |