← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 56% | 74% | 1.68 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.69 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 17% | 9% | 5.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 50% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 12' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 22' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · CD Santa Clara |
| 23' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 46' | 🟨 | Tiago Djaló · FC Porto |
| 47' | 🟨 | Pedro Ferreira · CD Santa Clara |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vinícius Lopes · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gabriel Batista · CD Santa Clara |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| ⚽ |
| Otavio · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟥 | Matheus Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 25.00 | 575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1806.90 | 1499.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.70 | -19.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 28.13 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.15 |