← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 39% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.23 | value: +3% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Farense −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +7% |
| Over | 45% | 38% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Kiko Bondoso · Rio Ave FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · Farense |
| 38' | 🟨 | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pastor · Farense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Miguel Menino · Farense |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Omar Richards · Rio Ave FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Derick Poloni · Farense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Francisco Petrasso · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| Tomané · Farense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 146.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1478.21 | 1539.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.91 | -8.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.55 | 1.12 |