← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 53% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.51 | value: +13% |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 19% | 19% | 5.43 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Famalicão −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |