← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 20, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 47% | 36% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 32% | 4.12 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Casa Pia AC +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
| 9' | 🟨 | Andrian Kraev · Casa Pia AC |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Rodrigo Abascal · Casa Pia AC |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Filipe Ferreira · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 64' | 🟥 | Pedro Gomes · Boavista |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gaizka Larrazabal · Casa Pia AC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| ⚽ |
| Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 294.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1428.27 | 1551.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.18 | 41.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 15.99 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 27.78 |
| state index | -0.97 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.11 |