← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 69% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.48 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 13% | 11% | 7.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +1.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Pablo Felipe · Gil Vicente FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
| 53' | ⚽ | Josué Sá · Gil Vicente FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 60' | 🟨 | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟥 |
| Nico González · FC Porto |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 171.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1521.18 | 1846.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.02 | -12.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 13.01 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.03 | 24.90 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.35 |