← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 17, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 77% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.77 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 8% | 6% | 13.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Famalicão −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 68% | 1.57 | value: +7% |
| Under | 39% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 1 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |