← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 76% | 1.41 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 21% | 12% | 4.88 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 12% | 8.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 62% | 1.89 | value: +16% |
| Under | 49% | 38% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 17' | ⚽ | Dudu · CD Nacional |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gustavo García · CD Nacional |
| 55' | 🟨 | Djibril Soumaré · CD Nacional |
| 55' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| José Gomes · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 561.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1380.74 | 1874.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.16 | 9.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 24.25 |
| state index | -0.47 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.47 |