← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 46% | 39% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
| Boavista win | 24% | 28% | 4.09 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Boavista +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 40' | 🟨 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟥 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 48' | 🟨 | Weverson · FC Arouca |
| 50' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pedro Gomes · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
| 71' | ⚽ | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 74' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico Mantl · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Güven Yalçın · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Güven Yalçın · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Güven Yalçın · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 278.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1442.72 | 1515.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.24 | -21.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 25.28 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.68 |