← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 30, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 31% | 34% | 3.11 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 64% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 36% | 2.91 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · CD Santa Clara |
| 30' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sidney Lima · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sorriso · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | 🟨 | Frederico Venâncio · CD Santa Clara |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Almeida · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1575.43 | 1500.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.95 | 24.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 8.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.01 |