← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 28, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 91% | 1.17 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 12% | 7% | 8.73 | fair |
| Boavista win | 6% | 2% | 19.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Boavista −2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 68% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 32% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 31' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 59' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 88' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 210.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1872.05 | 1444.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.39 | -17.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 37.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | — |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 1.95 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 23.82 |
| state index | 1.54 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.33 |