← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 28, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Pires Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 34% | 34% | 2.84 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Gabrielzinho · Moreirense FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hélder Costa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luís Asué · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bernardo Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Godfried Frimpong · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 180.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1464.32 | 1569.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.73 | -7.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 4.97 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 29.06 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.00 |