← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 64% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.49 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 13% | 21% | 7.14 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Moreirense FC +1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · FC Porto |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto |
| 72' | 🟨 | Iván Jaime · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | André Franco · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ | André Franco · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sidnei Tavares · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 173.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1577.41 | 1864.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.13 | 0.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 24.59 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.53 |