← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 49% | 54% | 1.96 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Farense win | 22% | 19% | 4.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.33 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Neto · Farense |
| 14' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
| 30' | ⚽ | Marco Matias · Farense |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Farense |
| 47' | ⚽ | Miguel Menino · Farense |
| 52' | 🟨 | Elves Baldé · Farense |
| 64' | 🟨 | Darío Poveda · Farense |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pastor · Farense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| Miguel Menino · Farense |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 20.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1590.58 | 1452.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.86 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.07 | — |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.97 |