← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 78% | 79% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.03 | fair |
| AVS win | 8% | 8% | 13.34 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| AVS +1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves |