← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 37% | 39% | 2.67 | value: +5% |
| Farense win | 32% | 30% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Farense +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 35% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marco Matias · Farense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Victor · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 251.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1447.45 | 1461.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.50 | 13.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 8.80 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -1.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.89 |