← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 47% | 52% | 2.03 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 25% | 19% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Isaac · CD Nacional |
| 41' | 🟨 | Djibril Soumaré · CD Nacional |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ulisses · CD Nacional |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luís Esteves · CD Nacional |
| 89' | 🟨 | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Aguirre · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas França · CD Nacional |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1497.16 | 1370.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.47 | 11.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 4.86 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | — |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 25.34 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.90 |