← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 6, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 77% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 8% | 6% | 13.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 64% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 36% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gabriel Martínez · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 54' | 🟨 | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bright Arrey-Mbi · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Costa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Costa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | 🟨 | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Fernández · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1730.49 | 1475.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.00 | 20.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.23 |