← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 40% | 41% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 29% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 36% | 2.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 8' | 🟨 | Vinicius Zanocelo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 33' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wagner Pina · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Aranda · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1463.83 | 1592.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.62 | -6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 21.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 25.41 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.73 |