← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 29% | 2.75 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 35% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Tiago Morais · Rio Ave FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Clayton · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Aderllan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gabrielzinho · Moreirense FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hassan · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| ⚽ |
| Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 29.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1548.79 | 1583.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.72 | 7.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 20.79 | 21.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -1.38 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 28.48 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.09 |